Wildfires are getting more frequent and more devastating 野火变得越来越频繁且更具有毁灭性

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Wildfires are getting more frequent and more devastating 野火变得越来越频繁且更具有毁灭性

Photograph: Getty Images

Aug 22nd 2024

HUMANITY HAS lived and played with fire for at least 300,000 years. The oldest hearth, discovered at Qesem Cave in Israel and thick with wood ash, is as old as Homo sapiens. Burning never subsequently went out of fashion. Millennia later, the large-scale combustion of coal, oil and natural gas unlocked energy on a scale far beyond the hearth—and in so doing set in train profound changes to the planet’s climate. Humankind, activists are fond of saying, set fossil fuels alight and the world with it. They brandish placards with images of a burning blue marble.

人类与火已经共存了至少 300,000 年了。在 Israel 的Qesem洞穴中发现的最古老的炉灶，厚厚的木灰表明它的年纪和智人一样古老。燃烧从来没有消失过，千年以来，大规模燃烧煤、石油和天然气释放出了远超炉灶（即传统的小规模燃烧）的能量，并且对地球气候的造成了深刻的改变。人类，正如环保人士常说的那样，点燃了化石燃料，也点燃了世界。他们只能继续挥舞着印有燃烧着的蓝色珠子（地球）的标语牌。注：They brandish placards with images of a burning blue marble. 可粗浅理解为人类继续燃烧化石燃料，导致地球（“蓝色大理石”）被“点燃”或“燃烧” 也可以理解为环保人士对人类使用化石燃料所导致的地球气候变化的抵制。更深入来看，其中 brandish 这个动词通常有一种显眼、挑衅的意味，往往与 抗议、反对或强调 某个问题相关，故理解为环保人士对人类使用化石燃料所导致的地球气候变化的抵制更佳。 hearth n. 炉灶 Homo sapiens n. 智人 large-scale adj. 大规模的 combustion n. 燃烧 and in so doing 通过这样做 profound adj. 深刻的 activist n. 积极分子；活跃分子 fond adj. 喜欢的 be fond of saying 常说 fossil n. 化石 brandish v. 挥舞 n. 挥舞（通常有一种显眼、挑衅的意味，往往与 抗议、反对或强调 某个问题相关） placard v. 张贴海报 n. 海报；标语牌 marble n. 大理石；弹珠

They have a point. Wildfires are more than a powerful visual metaphor for climate change. Data show they are increasingly fuelled by the extreme conditions resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions. What is more, some researchers believe that they are helping drive climate change themselves, powering feedback loops with destructive consequences for human health and ecological stability.

他们的观点是有道理的，野火不仅仅是气候变化的一个有力的视觉象征。数据表明它们正由温室气体排放引发的极端条件促进着。此外，一些调查人员相信野火也在回馈着气候变化本身，这些野火将通过助长这一反馈循环，对人类的健康和生态稳定造成毁灭性的后果。 metaphor n. 象征；隐喻 Be fuelled by 由……推动/引发 What is more 通常用来引出附加的、通常更重要或更有说服力的论点或信息，相当于“此外”或“更重要的是”

The past five years have been marked by a sequence of particularly extreme wildfires. In late 2019 and early 2020 the “Black Summer” bushfires burned through 23% of south-eastern Australia’s temperate forests. While New South Wales burned, Siberia smouldered, as fires from the previous summer simmered beneath the snow, re-emerging to lay waste to an area bigger than Britain. In 2021 a persistent heat dome over North America’s Pacific north-west produced perfect conditions for widespread burns which would have taxed firefighters even if they had not been synchronised. The day after temperatures in the Canadian town of Lytton soared to a record-breaking 49.6°C, Lytton was no more. In 2022 more of the European Union went up in flames than in any year since 2000, bar one. The next year, more than 950 square kilometres burned near the Greek city of Alexandroupoli in the EU’s largest single wildfire since the 1980s.

过去五年间，一系列极端野火尤为显著。在 2019年末到2020年初，“黑夏”林火烧毁了Australia 东南部 23% 的温带森林。在同一时期，New South Wales （位于 Australia）遭受了野火的肆虐，而 Siberia 虽然没有明火，但由于前一年夏天遗留的火源在雪下持续燃烧，积热未散。这些火源在雪融化后重新出现，使超过了 Britain 大小的区域陷入了荒芜。在2021年，一个持续的热穹覆盖了 North America’s Pacific 西北地区并创造出了发生大规模火灾的完美条件，覆盖面积之大以至于消防员即使没有面临并发火灾也会面临极大压力。在 Canadian 的 Lytton 镇（位于 North America’s Pacific north-west）的气温飙升至创纪录的49.6°C的第二天，Lytton 镇消失了。在2022年， European Union 的火灾面积比2000年来除了一年之外的任何一年都要大。次年，靠近 Alexandroupoli 的 Greek 附近的火灾焚毁了超过 950 平方千米的区域，成为自20世纪80年代以来欧盟最大的一场野火。 temperate adj. 温带的 smouldered v. 郁积；（无明火）闷烧 simmered v. 用文火炖；充满 n. 炖 to lay waste to 彻底摧毁/使荒芜 persistent adj. 持续的；执着的 Pacific n. 太平洋 adj. 太平洋的 synchronise v. 同步｜ sync bar 用于列举时，指出一个排除在外的例外情况。意思是 “除...之外”

The most remarkable blazes of the century, though, engulfed much of Canada between March and October 2023. Thousands of individual fires, many of them out of control for weeks or months at a time, set records for both their size and the speed at which they spread. No region was spared, from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific and from the southern border to the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea. The fires burned more than 180,000 square kilometres, nearly seven times the average burn area in recent years; 232,000 people were evacuated. Cumulatively, they produced almost 1,800m tonnes of carbon dioxide: three times Canada’s industrial greenhouse-gas emissions that year.

然而，在2023年3月至10月之间，本世纪最引人注目的烈火席卷了 Canada 的大部分地区。成千上万相互独立的火灾已经失控数周甚至数月之久并且它们的规模和扩散速度都创下了新纪录。从 Atlantic 沿岸到 Pacific，从南部边界到 Beaufort 海都没有幸免于难。是这些年中第一个烧毁超过 180,000 平方千米的火灾，几乎是近些年来平均烧毁面积的七倍；大约 232,000 数量的居民撤离了。这些火灾累计产生了近18亿吨二氧化碳，相当于 Canada 当年工业温室气体排放量的三倍。注： 1,800m 即 1,800 million 也就是 18亿 blaze v.熊熊燃烧 n.烈火 engulf v.席卷；吞噬 spare v.节约；赦免 evacuate v.撤离 cumulatively adv. 渐增的

Chart: The Economist

According to a study of extreme fire events published in June in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, the years since 2018 have been six of the seven worst since 2003. Over the same time-span the total amount of heat given off by the 20 worst fires of any given year has more than doubled. Noting that global warming was long claimed to be leading to more extreme fires, the authors say there is now evidence to show that this trend is real (see chart).

据发表在《Nature Ecology & Evolution》杂志上的一项关于极端火灾事件的研究，自2018年以来，这些年是自2003年以来最严重的七年中的六年。在同一时期内，每年最严重的20场火灾所释放的总热量增加了一倍以上。作者指出，尽管长期以来人们一直声称全球变暖正导致更多极端火灾，但现在这种趋势已经是不证自明的了。（见图表）

“Attribution” studies look for the links between these events and global warming that common sense suggests must be there. They use climate models to determine whether specific events were made worse or more likely by climate change. The conclusions are stark. Australia’s Black Summer fires were made at least 30% more likely. The record-breaking spring heatwave that revived the Siberian fires of 2020 would have been “almost impossible” in a world without climate change, according to World Weather Attribution, an international modelling collaboration. As for the Canadian heat of June 2023, an international team of academics concluded in August that its occurrence was about three times more likely under global warming than it would otherwise have been.

“归因”研究旨在探索这些火灾与全球变暖之间人们认为必然存在的联系。他们通过气候模型来确定气候变化是否加剧了这些特定事件或是增加了其发生的可能性。结论是显而易见的。根据世界天气归因组织（一个国际气候建模合作项目）的研究，Australia 的 “黑夏” 发生的概率被至少提高了 30%，而使2020年 Siberian 大火复燃的那场突破历史纪录的夏季热浪，如果没有气候变化则几乎不可能发生。至于2023年六月发生的 Canadian 大火，一队国际学者在八月得出结论称，在全球变暖的情况下，其发生的可能性大约是正常情况下的三倍。 attribution n. 归因 common sense 指的是人们普遍认为或显而易见的道理，即共识、常识 stark adj. 完全的；荒凉的；光秃秃的；僵硬的；严厉的 revive v. 复生；再生 academics n. 专业学者

Once burned, twice burned 一烧再烧

Drier periods and hotter weather often combine to create the ideal conditions for large, destructive fires: tinder-dry vegetation ready to burn, and a paucity of fire-dousing rain. (That said, in some regions some rains can do damage by overabundance—providing more plant mass for dry seasons to turn to fuel.) Climate change means “fire weather” is not only becoming more frequent but also more geographically widespread.

更干旱的时期和更热的天气经常结合在，创造出毁灭性大规模火灾的理想条件：干燥的植被随时可以燃烧，而灭火的降雨又十分稀少。（话虽如此，在某些地区，过多的降雨反而可能造成损害—为旱季提供更多可以变成燃料的植物）气候变化不仅意味着“火灾天气”变得更加频繁，而且其地理分布也更加广泛。 Drier n. 烘干机 adj. 更干的 tinder n. 火种；易燃物 vegetation n. （统称）植被 paucity n. 不足 douse v. 浸入水中；灭火

Globally, fire seasons lengthened by 14 days (or 27%) between 1979 and 2019, according to research published in 2022 in Reviews of Geophysics, a journal. The number of days when the most extreme fire conditions prevailed increased by 54%, or ten additional days, over the same period. The Mediterranean, the Amazon and the Pacific forests of North America are among the regions to have seen the greatest increases.

根据发表在《Reviews of Geophysics》杂志上的一项研究，1979年至2019年间，全球火灾时期延长了14天（或27%）。在同一时期，极端火灾条件最严重的天数增加了54%，也就是多了10天。Mediterranean、Amazon 和 Pacific forests of North America 都分别是极端火灾天数增加最多的地区之一。

More fire weather does not in itself mean more fires. Roughly 70% of the land surface that burns each year is in Africa, most of it savannahs that are deliberately set alight to regenerate grazing lands and make way for agriculture. These burns are decreasing, in part because people are setting fewer of them and in part because climate change is moistening some savannahs. These changes are leading to a lower total burn area, to the delight of climate sceptics. Remove this vast area from the data, though, and a very different trend emerges: forest fires are on the rise, particularly in the boreal regions that encircle the Arctic. In boreal North America, for example, the burned area doubled between the 1960s and the 1990s.

更多的“火灾天气”本身并不一定意味着更多的火灾。每年大约70%的燃烧土地位于 Africa，其中大部分是被人为点燃的大草原，目的是为了恢复牧草地和开垦农业用地。这类燃烧正在减少，一部分原因是人们点燃的次数减少，另一部分原因是气候变化使一些草原变得更加潮湿。这些变化导致总的燃烧面积减少，这让气候怀疑论者感到欣慰。然而，如果将这片广阔的区域从数据中剔除，就会出现一个截然不同的趋势：森林火灾正在增加，尤其是在环绕 Arctic 的地区。例如，在 North America 以北的地区，烧毁的面积在20世纪60年代到90年代之间翻了一倍。 savannah n. 大草原 moisten v. 湿润；变湿 delight n. 开心｜ v. 使开心 sceptic n. 怀疑论者 boreal adj. 北方的

The pattern is ongoing and global, says Matthew Jones, a researcher at Britain’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, who has published a new paper in Earth System Science Data, a journal, showing a clear increasing trend in forest wildfires globally. His collaborator Stefan Doerr, the director of the Centre for Wildfire Research at Swansea University, calls it “basically beyond question”. The distinction between savannah fires and forest fires matters: grasslands regenerate within a few years. Forests, particularly old-growth ones, take decades to grow again.

英国 Tyndall 气候变化研究中心的研究员 Matthew Jones 表示，这一趋势是持续的，也是全球性的。他在期刊《Earth System Science Data》上发表了一篇新论文，显示全球森林野火呈明显上升趋势。他的合作者、Swansea 大学野火研究中心主任 Stefan Doerr 称这一趋势“基本无可置疑”。草原火灾和森林火灾之间的区别很重要：草原可以在几年内再生，而森林，尤其是原始森林，需要数十年才能重新生长。 ongoing adj. 正在进行的 director n. 指导者；主任；导演；董事 basically beyond question 基本上无可争议的

Chart: The Economist

The study shows that the increase is particularly marked in the boreal forests that encircle the Arctic. Last year’s megafires in Canada fall into this category, as do the Siberian blazes of 2020. This has implications for future warming. In tropical savannahs, new plant growth fairly quickly absorbs carbon dioxide—that which was emitted in last year’s fires is soon reabsorbed. When mature forests go up in flames, reabsorption can take many decades or even centuries. Thus boreal fires significantly raise carbon dioxide levels.

研究显示，这种增加在环绕北极的北方森林中尤为显著。去年的 Canada 特大火灾和2020年的 Siberian 大火都属于这种类型。这对未来的变暖具有深远影响。在热带草原中，新植物的生长会相对迅速地吸收二氧化碳——去年火灾中排放的二氧化碳很快就会被重新吸收。而当森林被烧毁时，二氧化碳的重吸收过程可能需要几十年甚至几个世纪。因此，北方森林火灾会显著提高二氧化碳的浓度。 boreal forests 北方森林带（位于亚寒带地区，也就是北纬50度到70度之间，这些地区通常具有寒冷的气候） megafires phrase. 特大火灾 implication n. 可能的影响；暗示；牵连 tropical adj. 热带的 emit v. 散发 mature adj. 成熟的 reabsorption n. 重吸收

The picture may not be as bleak as it seems. In some boreal regions, like parts of North America, burned conifer forests are being replaced by deciduous trees, which grow—and therefore suck carbon out of the atmosphere—faster. This could help mitigate warming rather than amplify it, says Dr Doerr, but it is most probably a minor buffer. (Elsewhere, the dynamics are different: deforestation of the Amazon threatens to turn that ecosystem into a carbon-poor grassland, a process that is accelerated and sustained by wildfires.)

情况可能并不像看起来那么严峻。在一些北方地区，例如 North America 的部分地区，被烧毁的针叶林正在被阔叶林取代，这些树木生长更快，因此能够更快地从大气中吸收碳。 Dr Doerr 表示，这可能有助于减缓变暖，而不是加剧，但这很可能只是一个轻微的缓冲。（在其他地方，情况有所不同：Amazon 的森林砍伐威胁着将该生态系统转变为碳含量较低的草原，而这一过程正在被野火加速和维持。） bleak adj. 荒凉的；沮丧的 conifer n.针叶林 deciduous adj. 定期落叶的；阔叶的 mitigate v. 减轻；缓和 amplify v. 放大；增强 deforestation n. 森林采伐 threaten v. 恐吓 sustain v. 支撑；维持

There is another complicating factor. In the winter, boreal forests look dark from above, because the season’s snow sits below the canopy of leaves. Clear the forest and the snow is revealed to the sky; and reflecting sunlight, rather than absorbing it in a leafy canopy, cools the planet. Though boreal-forest fires heat things up immediately, by spreading ash and depriving forests of the cooling effect of transpiration (the evaporation of water from the leaves of trees), over the decades that follow boreal-forest fires increase the amount of snow bared to the sky. That cooling effect is widely taken to outweigh the warming driven by the fires’ direct emissions.

还有一个更复杂的因素。在冬季，由于季节性的积雪在树叶之下，所以从上面看，北方森林显得很暗。如果清除森林（没有树叶吸收阳光），积雪将重见天日并反射阳光，这将使得地球变得凉爽。虽然北方森林火灾会立即引起升温，因为它们会散布灰烬并减少森林蒸腾作用（树叶水分蒸发）的降温效果，但在随后的几十年里，北方森林火灾会增加暴露在天空下的积雪量。普遍认为，这种降温效果超过了火灾直接排放所导致的变暖效应。 canopy n. 树荫；天蓬 deprive v. 剥夺；使丧失 transpiration n. 蒸腾作用 evaporation n. 蒸发；脱水

This effect is on the wane. For one thing, snow cover is decreasing as the world warms. That means the strongest cooling effects are becoming restricted to more and more northerly forests. For another, as fires get more intense, their emissions, which may already be underestimated, could significantly increase.

这种效应正在减弱。一方面，随着全球变暖，积雪覆盖正在减少，这意味着最强的降温效果正逐渐局限于越来越靠北的森林。另一方面，随着火灾变得更加猛烈，其排放量（可能已被低估）可能会显著增加。 wane v. 衰落；减轻；缺；亏

The unfrozen North 北极的解冻

Another huge unknown in the spread of fires to the boreal regions is peat. Peat is a type of soil formed over thousands of years that is exceptionally rich in carbon. The carbon emissions produced when peatlands burn may be well nigh irreversible. Worryingly, most of the world’s peat is found on the fringes of the Arctic, precisely where wildfires are on the rise. Though peatlands are often waterlogged and, at high latitudes, frozen, heat and drought could overcome these fire protections.

火灾蔓延至寒带地区的另一个巨大未知因素是泥炭。泥炭是一种经过数千年形成的土壤类型，具有极高的碳含量。泥碳地燃烧所造成的碳排放几乎不可逆。令人忧心的是，世界上绝大多数的泥炭都分布于 Arctic 的边缘，而这些正是野火频发的地区。尽管泥炭地通常因为积水或在高纬度地区被冻结，但高温和干旱可能会克服这些防火保护。 peat n. 泥碳 exceptionally adv. 异常的；例外的 nigh adj. 近的；直接的｜ adv. 接近地；几乎 irreversible adj. 不可逆转的；无可挽回的 fringe n. 刘海；流苏；边缘｜ v. 作为…的边缘 precisely adv. 精确地；恰好地 drought n. 旱灾

Too hot to handle Photograph: Panos Pictures/ Matthew Abbott

Peat burning in boreal regions is probably one of the biggest sources of uncertainty about future fire emissions, says Dr Doerr. Though the Arctic is now warming nearly four times faster than the global average, how much of the boreal peat will burn—and when—is impossible to predict. The likelihood of such fires starting, though, looks set to increase. Most fires in boreal regions are ignited by a bolt of lightning (unlike fires elsewhere, which are often started by humans). And forests in temperate and boreal regions could see an 11-31% increase in lightning strikes for every degree of warming, according to a study published last year.

Dr Doerr 表示，北方地区泥炭的燃烧可能是未来火灾排放的不确定性因素之一。尽管 Arctic 的变暖速度现在几乎是全球平均水平的四倍，但北方泥炭究竟会有多少燃烧以及何时燃烧，仍无法预测。不过，这类火灾发生的可能性似乎将会增加。大多数北方地区的火灾是由闪电引发的（与其他地区的火灾不同，其他地方的火灾通常由人为原因引起）。根据去年发表的一项研究，温带和北方地区每升高一摄氏度，闪电次数可能增加11%到31%。 uncertainty n. 不确定；拿不准；怀疑 looks set 看起来很有可能 ignite v. 点燃；激起 strike v. 击打；侵袭｜ n. 罢工；袭击

The climate impact of blazes that burn peat, among other things, has led some to propose the active suppression of such fires as a way to mitigate emissions. This is a departure from the norm: most countries try to conserve resources by tackling only the blazes that directly threaten human safety or property. (It also runs against the “let burn” firefighting orthodoxy, which favours leaving fires alone in order to reduce the available fuel.)

由于泥炭燃烧造成的气候影响（以及其他一些因素），有些人提出应该扑灭此类火灾以减少排放。这偏离了常规的做法：大多数国家通常只尝试应对直接威胁人类安全或财产的火灾，以节约资源。（这种做法也与“任其燃烧”的灭火正统观念相悖，该观念主张让火灾自行燃烧，以减少可燃物。） among other things 除其他事项之外 norm n. 准则；标准 conserve v. 保藏；保护；节约｜蜜饯 orthodoxy n. 正统；正统说法

It would not be cheap. Modelling published in 2022 by researchers from America’s Union of Concerned Scientists and the Woodwell Climate Research Centre in Massachusetts predicted that keeping Alaska’s boreal-wildfire emissions close to the historical average would cost almost $700m a year until 2030, more than five times the state’s current firefighting budget. But, they concluded, per ton of carbon dioxide saved it might well be cheaper than several alternatives currently funded by the American government.

这并不便宜。2022年，美国 Concerned Scientists 和在 Massachusetts 的 Woodwell 气候研究中心的研究人员发表的模型预测，如果要将 Alaska 的北方野火排放量保持在历史平均水平附近，到2030年，每年将花费近7亿美元，这一数额是该州当前消防预算的五倍多。但他们得出的结论是，按每吨节省的二氧化碳计算，这可能比美国政府目前资助的几种替代方案更为便宜。

Some have been inspired. As of 2023, the Yukon National Wildlife Refuge—an area of eastern Alaska roughly the size of Denmark—is testing a scheme based on this research. Alaskan firefighters can now be sent to try to contain some types of fires in a specific part of the refuge with the oldest and most carbon-rich permafrost. Jimmy Fox, who manages the refuge for the government, reckons it will mean a couple of big fires are suppressed each year.

有些人因此受到启发。截至2023年，Yukon 国家野生动物保护区（位于 Alaska 东部、面积大致相当于 Denmark）正在测试一项基于该研究的方案。现在，Alaskan 的消防员可以被派往保护区内特定区域尝试控制某些类型的火灾，这些区域拥有最古老且碳含量最高的永久冻土。负责管理该保护区的 Jimmy Fox 估计，这将意味着每年能扑灭几场大的火灾。 As of <data> 截止<data> permafrost n. 永冻层 reckon v. 估计；考虑到；认为 a couple of 通常指代两个或略多于两个的数量

Elsewhere, fires continue to go unchecked. After the blazes in Siberia and Russia’s Far East in 2019, the government declared that it would suppress fires across much greater areas. But such promises are useless without the resources to back them up. According to Greenpeace Russia, which monitors wildfires in the country, Russia’s firefighting budget has risen by less than inflation in recent years.

在其他地方，火灾仍然未得到有效控制。2019年西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东地区发生大火后，政府宣布将扩大火灾的扑灭范围。但如果没有相应的资源支持，这样的承诺是无用的。根据负责监测该国野火的 Greenpeace 俄罗斯分部的数据，近年来俄罗斯的灭火预算增长幅度甚至低于通货膨胀率。 unchecked adj. 未加抑制的；未经核对的 inflation n. 膨胀；通货膨胀

Regardless of the long-term effects of boreal fires on greenhouse-gas levels, some kinds of emissions from combustion have particular economic importance: those from trees that are being credited with locking away carbon in some sort of carbon-credit scheme.

不论北方森林火灾对温室气体水平的长期影响如何，由一些燃烧产生的排放物具有特殊的经济重要性：这些排放物来自那些在某些碳信用计划中被认为能锁定碳的树木。

In recent years forestry projects have emerged as a popular source of carbon credits, the idea being that planting new trees—or stopping the destruction of existing ones—can help offset emissions elsewhere. Obviously, those credits are worthless if the vegetation involved goes up in flames, or if the forests’ carbon stock is otherwise depleted (by disease, say, or pests). Consequently, offset schemes rely on “buffer pools” as built-in insurance mechanisms, with any damage compensated for by retiring an equivalent amount of carbon stock from the buffer pool.

近年来，林业项目作为碳信用的一种热门来源出现，理念是种植新树木或阻止现有树木的破坏，可以帮助抵消其他地方的排放量。显然，如果涉及的植被被烧毁，或者森林的碳储量因其他原因（例如疾病或是害虫）减少，那么这些碳信用就会变得毫无价值。因此，碳抵消计划依赖于“缓冲池”作为内建的保险机制，任何损失都会通过从缓冲池中提取等量的碳储量来进行补偿。注： by disease, say, or pests 其中 say 是一个插入语用来举例说明，意思相当于 “例如” 或 “比如说”。 Let’s choose a meeting time, say, 2 p.m. tomorrow? - 我们来定一个开会时间吧，比如说明天下午两点？ forestry n. 林产；森林学；森林地 stock n. 储备；股票 deplete v. 耗尽；使枯竭 mechanism n. 机制；机械装置 retiring adj. 不爱交际的；离群索居的；即将退休的 | v-ing. 退休 equivalent adj. 相等的；等价的｜ n. 等价物

Increasingly devastating fires threaten the integrity of these schemes. Take, as an example, California’s state-run carbon offsets programme, which was supposed to guarantee carbon storage for 100 years. An analysis of the programme published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change in 2022 found that 95% of the buffer pool set aside to mitigate wildfire risk was used up in the first ten years of the scheme’s operation.

日益严重的火灾威胁着这些计划的完整性。以 California 的碳抵消项目为例，该项目本应保证100年的碳储存。然而，2022年发表在《Frontiers in Forests and Global Change》杂志上的一项分析发现，为缓解野火风险而预留的缓冲池中 95% 的碳储量在项目开始的十年内就已消耗殆尽。 integrity n. 完整；正直；诚实

Up in smoke 化为灰烬

It is not only carbon markets that are at risk. Many national and regional strategies to mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions include plans to reduce emissions by boosting land-based carbon sinks through forestry and agricultural programmes. Fire adds to the reasons for rethinking this.

不仅仅是碳市场面临风险。许多国家和地区的温室气体减排战略中都包括通过林业和农业项目来增强以陆地为基础的碳汇计划。火灾为重新考虑这些计划提供了新的理由。 Carbon sinks/Carbon sequestration 碳汇

Such problems will get only worse. Modelling studies suggest that the length of fire seasons will continue to increase as temperatures rise. If the planet warms by no more than the 1.5-2°C temperature range agreed in the UN Paris agreement, the number of extreme-fire-risk days is projected to more than double. Between 3°C and 4°C, they might quadruple. Existing climate policies are currently predicted to stabilise global warming somewhere between 2.2°C and 3.4°C.

这些问题只会变得更严重。建模研究表明，随着气温上升，火灾季节的长度将继续增加。如果全球变暖不超过《UN Paris》中商定的1.5-2°C范围，极端火灾风险天数预计将增加一倍以上。在3°C到4°C之间，这些天数可能会增加四倍。现有的气候政策预计将把全球变暖稳定在 2.2°C 到 3.4°C 之间。 quadruple adj. 四倍的｜ n. 四部分｜ v. 成四倍 stabilise v. 使稳定；使安定

With that level of warming, a great many forests, from Alaska to Indonesia and south-east Australia, will experience fire seasons of unprecedented ferocity and duration. Homo sapiens may not have started the fire, but will need to find ways of living with it. And fast. ■

在这种程度的变暖下，从 Alaska 到 Indonesia 再到 Australia 东南部的许多森林将经历前所未有的狂暴的持续性火灾时期。智人（人类）可能并没有引发这些火灾，但将不得不找到与之共存的方式，并且需要足够迅速。■ ferocity n. 凶猛；狂暴