The real problem with China’s economy 中国经济的真正问题

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The real problem with China’s economy 中国经济的真正问题

Sep 5th 2024

China’S giant economy faces an equally giant crisis of confidence—and a growing deficit of accurate information is only making things worse. Even as the country wrestles with a property crash, the services sector slowed by one measure in August. Consumers are fed up. Multinational firms are taking money out of China at a record pace and foreign China-watchers are trimming their forecasts for economic growth.

中国庞大的经济面临同样巨大的信任危机，而准确信息的缺乏只会让情况变得更糟。即使在该国与房地产崩溃作斗争之际，服务业在八月的一项指标中也出现了放缓。消费者感到厌倦。跨国公司正以创纪录的速度从中国撤资，外国观察家正在下调对中国经济增长的预测。 deficit n. 赤字；亏损；不足在本文中 deficit 应该翻译为 “缺乏”：
语境：原文讨论的是中国经济面临的信任危机以及信息的准确性问题。这与财政或预算无关，而是关于信息的可获得性和准确性。因此，"deficit" 在这里更适合翻译为 "缺乏" 或 "不足"，以反映信息不充分的问题。
词义：虽然 "deficit" 在经济学中常常与 "赤字" 相关，表示支出超过收入的情况，但它的基本含义是 "不足" 或 "缺少"。在非财政语境中，"deficit" 可以用于描述任何形式的不足或短缺。例如，在心理学中，"attention deficit" 指的是注意力不足。
搭配使用：在英语中，"deficit" 常与 "information" 搭配使用，表示信息的不足或缺乏，而不是字面上的赤字。这种搭配在讨论信息透明度或信息获取问题时尤为常见。
逻辑一致性：在讨论信任危机时，信息的缺乏会导致不确定性和猜测，从而加剧信任问题。这种逻辑关系更符合 "缺乏" 的意思，而不是 "赤字"。
综上所述，在这个特定的语境中，"deficit" 应理解为信息的不足或缺乏，而不是财政意义上的赤字。这样翻译才能更准确地传达原文的意图和含义。 fed up phrase. 厌倦的；烦透的

The gloom reflects real problems, from half-built houses to bad debts. But it also reflects growing mistrust of information about China. The government is widely believed to be massaging data, suppressing sensitive facts and sometimes offering delusional prescriptions for the economy. This void feeds on itself: the more fragile the economy is, the more knowledge is suppressed and the more nerves fray. This is not just a cyclical problem of confidence. By backtracking on the decades-long policy of partially liberalising the flow of information, China will find it harder to complete its ambition of restructuring the economy around new industries. Like the Soviet Union, it risks instead becoming an example of how autocratic rule is not just illiberal but also inefficient.

这种悲观情绪反映了从烂尾楼到坏账等实际问题。但它也反映了对有关中国信息日益增长的不信任。普遍认为，政府正在调整数据，压制敏感事实，有时甚至为经济提供不切实际的建议。这种信息空白（指信息缺乏或不信任的空白）自我滋生：经济越脆弱，知识（信息）被压制得越多，人们的紧张情绪就越严重。这不仅仅是一个周期性的信心问题。通过倒退几十年来部分放宽信息流动的政策，中国将更难实现围绕新兴产业重组经济的目标。像苏联一样，它反而有可能成为一个例子，说明专制统治不仅是不自由的，而且效率低下。 gloom n. 黑暗；忧郁；幽暗｜ v. 变阴暗；变忧郁 massage n. 按摩；揉｜ v. 按摩；揉 delusional adj. 妄想的 feed on phrase. 以 … 为食 nerve n. 神经；勇气；胆量 fray v. 使磨损；使烦躁｜ n. 磨损处；争吵 backtrack v. 改变；原路返回；倒回 autocratic adj. 独裁的；专制的 illiberal adj. 非自由的；思想狭隘的
在这句话中，“the more fragile the economy is, the more knowledge is suppressed and the more nerves fray” 中的 knowledge 指的是有关经济状况的准确和透明的信息。这包括经济表现的数据、政策决策以及其他可能影响经济认知和决策的信息。在这个背景下，知识的压制意味着缺乏透明度和开放性，无法分享经济数据和见解。这种压制可能导致企业、投资者和公众等经济参与者之间的不确定性和不信任。当准确的信息被隐瞒或操控时，这些利益相关者就难以做出明智的决策，这可能加剧经济的脆弱性，并增加那些受经济表现影响的人的焦虑或紧张情绪。

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The Chinese authorities are concealing the state of the economy

China is suffering from a crisis of confidence

The tightening of censorship under President Xi Jinping is well known. Social-media accounts are ever more strictly policed. Officials are warier of candid debate with outsiders. Scholars fear they are watched and business people mouth Communist Party slogans. Less familiar is the parallel disappearance of technical data, especially if it is awkward or embarrassing for the party. Figures for youth unemployment, a huge problem, have been “improved and optimised”—and lowered. Balance-of-payments statistics have become so murky that even America’s Treasury is baffled. On August 19th stock exchanges stopped publishing daily numbers on dwindling foreign-investment inflows. As the economic dashboard dims, the private sector is finding it harder to make good decisions. Officials probably are, too.

众所周知，在 Xi Jinping 主席的领导下，审查力度不断加大。社交媒体账户受到越来越严格的监管。官员们对与外界坦诚辩论更加谨慎。学者们担心自己被监视，商界人士则口头上附和共产党口号。较少为人所知的是技术数据的逐步消失，尤其是那些让党感到尴尬的数据。青年失业率这一巨大问题的数据通过“改进和优化”而被降低。国际收支统计数据变得如此模糊，以至于连美国财政部都感到困惑。8月19日，证券交易所停止发布有关外资流入减少的每日数据。随着经济信息的减少，私营部门发现更难做出明智的决策。官员们可能也面临同样的困难。 censorship n. 审查；审查制度 warier adv. 谨慎的；小心的 candid adj. 坦率的；坦诚的 mouth v. 附和｜ n. 嘴；口 slogan n. 口号；标语 murky adj. 昏暗的；污浊的；含糊不清的 treasury n. 财政部 baffle v. 使困惑；难倒｜ n. 挡板；阻碍体 dwindle v. 缩小；减少 inflow n. 流入 sector n. 部门

To understand the significance of this shift, look back to the mid-20th century. Witnessing the totalitarianism of the 1930s and 1940s, liberal thinkers such as Karl Popper and Friedrich Hayek argued that political freedom and economic success go hand in hand: decentralised power and information prevent tyranny and allow millions of firms and consumers to make better decisions and live better lives. The collapse of the Soviet Union proved them right. In order to maintain political dominance, its rulers ruthlessly controlled information. But that required brutal repression, starved the economy of price signals and created an edifice of lies. By the end, even the Soviet leadership was deprived of an accurate picture.

要理解这一转变的重要性，可以回顾 20 世纪中期。目睹了 20 世纪 30 年代和 40 年代的极权主义后，Karl Popper 和 Friedrich Hayek 等自由思想家提出，政治自由和经济成功是相辅相成的：去中心化的权力和信息可以防止暴政，并使数以百万计的企业和消费者能够做出更好的决策，过上更好的生活。苏联的解体证明了他们的观点是正确的。为了维持政治统治，苏联的统治者无情地控制信息。但这需要残酷的压制，使经济失去了价格信号，并创造了一个谎言的体系。到最后，甚至苏联的领导层也无法获得准确的情况。 totalitarianism n. 极权主义 decentralise v. 分散；权利分散 tyranny n. 暴虐；苛政；专横 ruthlessly adv. 残忍的；冷酷的；无情的 brutal adj. 野蛮的；残暴的；残酷的 repression n. 抑制 edifice n. 大厦；大建筑

As China grew more open in the late 1990s and 2000s, its leaders hoped to maintain control while avoiding the Soviet Union’s mistakes. For many years they allowed technical information in business, the economy and science to flow far more freely. Think of Chinese firms with listed share prices disclosing information to investors in New York, or scientists sharing new research with groups abroad. Technology seemed to offer a more surgical way to censor mass opinion. The internet was intensively policed, but it was not banned.

随着中国在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代更加开放，其领导人希望在保持控制的同时避免苏联的错误。多年来，他们允许商业、经济和科学领域的技术信息更加自由地流动。可以想到的是，中国公司通过上市股价向纽约的投资者披露信息，或者科学家与国外团体分享新的研究成果。技术似乎提供了一种更精确的方法来审查大众舆论。互联网受到严格监管，但并未被禁止。 surgical adj. 外科的；外科手术的；精密的 disclose v. 泄露；透露 censor n. 调查员；｜ v. 调查；审查

China’s top leadership also redoubled its efforts to know what was going on. For decades, it has run a system known as neican, or internal reference, in which journalists and officials compile private reports. During the Tiananmen Square protests, for example, the leadership received constant updates. Techno-utopian party loyalists reckoned that big data and artificial intelligence could improve this system, creating a high-tech panopticon for the supreme leader that would allow the kind of enlightened central planning the Soviets failed at.

中国的最高领导层也加倍努力了解实际情况。几十年来，他们一直运行着一个名为“内参”（或“内部参考”）的系统，在这个系统中，记者和官员编写私人报告。例如，在 Tiananmen Square 抗议期间，领导层不断收到最新情况更新。Techno-utopian 的党内忠诚者认为，大数据和人工智能可以改进这个系统，为最高领导人创建一个高科技的全景监狱，从而实现苏联未能实现的开明中央计划。 redouble v. 加倍；增加；再加倍 utopian adj. 乌托邦；空想完美主义的｜ n. 空想者 loyalist n. 忠诚支持者 panopticon n. 圆形监狱；全景监狱

It is this vision of a partially open, hyper-efficient China that is now in doubt. Amid a widening culture of fear and a determination to put national security before the economy, the party has proved unable or unwilling to limit the scope of its interference in information flows. Monetary-policy documents and the annual reports of China’s mega-banks now invoke Xi Jinping Thought. Deadly-dull foreign management consultants are treated as spies. This is happening despite the fact that China’s increasingly sophisticated economy requires more fluid and complex decision-making.

正是这种部分开放、高效运作的中国如今受到质疑。在日益扩大的恐惧文化和将国家安全置于经济之上的决心中，党已经证明无法或不愿限制其对信息流动的干预范围。货币政策文件和中国大型银行的年度报告现在引用了习近平思想。枯燥乏味的外国管理顾问被视为间谍。尽管中国日益复杂的经济需要更灵活和复杂的决策，这种情况仍在发生。 amid prep. 在其中 scope n. 范围；领域 monetary adj. 货币的；金钱的 mega adj. 异常巨大的；非常重要的｜ adv. 极其的 invoke v. 祈用；援引 deadly adj. 极度的；致死的｜ adv. 非常地；如死一般地 sophisticate n. 老于世故的人；见多识广的人｜ v. 使复杂；使变得世故 fluid n. 流体；流质｜ adj. 流动的

An obvious result is the retreat of individual liberty. In a reversal of its partial opening, China has become a more repressive place. Many Chinese still have liberal views and enjoy debate but stick to private gatherings. They present no immediate danger to the party.

一个显而易见的结果是个人自由的退缩。在部分开放的逆转中，中国变得更加压抑。许多中国人仍然持有自由观点并喜欢辩论，但仅限于私人聚会。他们对党没有直接的威胁。 repressive adj. 镇压的；专制的；压抑的

The information void’s other effects pose more of a threat. As price signals dim, the allocation of capital is getting harder. This comes at a delicate moment. As its workforce shrinks, China must rely more on boosting productivity to grow. That is all about using resources well. The country needs to pivot away from cheap credit and construction to innovative industries and supplying consumers. That is why capital spending is pouring into electric vehicles, semiconductors and more. Yet if investment is based on erroneous calculations of demand and supply, or if data on subsidies and profits are suppressed, then the odds of a successful transition are low.

信息空白的其他影响更具威胁性。随着价格信号的减弱，资本配置变得更加困难。这发生在一个微妙的时刻。随着劳动力的缩减，中国必须更多地依靠提高生产率来实现增长，而这完全取决于资源的有效利用。国家需要从廉价信贷和建筑业转向创新产业和消费者供应。这就是为什么资本支出大量流入电动汽车、半导体等领域。然而，如果投资是基于对供需的错误计算，或者补贴和利润的数据被压制，那么成功转型的可能性就很低。 pivot n. 中心；旋转｜ v. 以 … 为中心 semiconductor n. 半导体 erroneous adj. 错误的 subsidise v. 以津贴补助

China’s admirers might retort that the country’s key decision-makers still have good information with which to steer the economy. But nobody really knows what data and reports Mr Xi sees. Moreover, as the public square empties it is a good bet that the flow of private information is becoming more distorted and less subject to scrutiny. No one wants to sign a memo that says one of Mr Xi’s signature policies is failing.

中国的仰慕者可能会反驳说，该国的关键决策者仍然拥有良好的信息来引导经济。但是，没有人真正知道 Mr Xi 看到的数据和报告是什么。此外，随着公共领域的空虚，可以肯定的是，私人信息的流动变得更加扭曲，并且更少受到审查。没有人愿意在一份备忘录上签字（这个比喻可能是用来强调在政治环境中，官员们不愿意冒险去指出或承认领导政策的失败，因为这可能带来政治风险），指出 Mr Xi 的某项标志性政策正在失败。 retort n. 反驳；顶嘴｜ v. 反驳；回嘴 steer v. 驾驶；引导；掌舵；模拟｜ n. 犍牛 scrutiny n. 详细检查；仔细研究

After the horrors of the mid-20th century, liberal thinkers understood that free-flowing information improves decision-making, reduces the odds of grave mistakes and makes it easier for societies to evolve. But when information is suppressed, it turns into a source of power and corruption. Over time, the distortions and inefficiencies mount. China has big opportunities but it also faces immense problems. A fully informed citizenry, private sector and government would be far better equipped to take on the challenges ahead. ■

经历了20世纪中期的恐怖之后，自由主义思想家认识到，自由流动的信息能够改善决策，减少重大错误的可能性，并使社会更容易发展。但是，当信息被压制时，它就会成为权力和腐败的源泉。随着时间的推移，扭曲和低效会不断增加。中国有巨大的机遇，但也面临巨大的问题。一个充分知情的公民社会、私营部门和政府将更有能力应对未来的挑战。■ evolve v. 形成；演变；进化 corruption n. 贪污；堕落；腐败 grave n. 坟墓｜ adj. 严重的；重大的；严肃的 mount v. 逐渐增加；骑上；登上｜ n. 山；峰 immense adj. 巨大的 informed adj. 了解情况的；见多识广的；可靠消息的 citizenry n. 全体市民；公民；市民