America’s election is mired in conflict ｜美国选举陷入纷争

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America’s election is mired in conflict

Sep 12th 2024

Even without Donald Trump on the ballot, American elections tend to create conflict. America is the only proper presidential democracy in which the person who wins the most votes does not necessarily win power. The two-month gap between voting and election certification in Congress is the most drawn-out anywhere. Complexity invites legal challenges, which add to the complexity. For all those reasons, American elections demand patience and trust. Unfortunately, the country comes joint last among the G7 on trust in the judiciary and dead last on belief that its elections are honest.

即使没有唐纳德·特朗普在选票上，美国的选举也往往会引发冲突。美国是唯一一个真正的总统制民主国家，其中赢得最多选票的人不一定会获得权力。从投票到国会认证选举结果之间有两个月的间隔，这是世界上最长的。复杂性引发法律挑战，而这些挑战又增加了复杂性。由于所有这些原因，美国的选举需要耐心和信任。不幸的是，在七国集团（G7）中，美国在对司法系统的信任度方面与其他国家并列倒数第一，而在对选举诚信的信任度方面则是倒数第一。

And then there is Mr Trump. At the debate in Philadelphia this week the former president was angry and aggrieved. He repeated his false and outrageous claim that the election in 2020 was stolen—an assertion that nearly 70% of Republican voters say they endorse. He and his party are gearing up to wage the post-election war a second time. Both parties argue that victory for the other side would threaten American democracy. For Mr Trump personally the stakes are even higher: if he loses he could go to prison. If the election is not close, perhaps America might avoid another toxic transfer of power. Unfortunately for America’s increasingly beleaguered democracy, by our reckoning this presidential race is tighter today than any since polling began.

然后是特朗普先生。在本周费城的辩论中，这位前总统表现得愤怒且不满。他重复了他那虚假且令人愤慨的说法，即2020年的选举被窃取——这一断言得到了近70%共和党选民的支持。他和他的政党正准备再次发动选后战争。双方都认为，对方的胜利将威胁到美国的民主。对特朗普先生个人而言，赌注更高：如果他失败，他可能会入狱。如果选举结果不接近，也许美国可以避免另一次有毒的权力交接。不幸的是，对于美国日益受困扰的民主制度来说，根据我们的估算，这次总统竞选比自民意调查开始以来的任何一次都更加紧张。 aggrieve v. 令委屈；令苦恼 outrageous adj. 粗暴的；无礼的；十分讨厌的 toxic adj. 有毒的；中毒的｜ n. 毒物；毒剂

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How messy will it get? There are three possible outcomes. Start with the extremely unlikely one, which is a vote so close that Kamala Harris and Mr Trump tie in the electoral college. Were this to happen, the next president would be picked by the House of Representatives, with each state wielding one vote. Even if Ms Harris won the popular vote on November 5th, Mr Trump would almost certainly become president. That would be fair in the sense that it would follow the rules, but Democrats would be furious.

情况会有多混乱？有三种可能的结果。首先是极不可能的情况，即卡玛拉·哈里斯和特朗普在选举人团中打成平手。如果发生这种情况，下一任总统将由众议院选出，每个州拥有一票。即使哈里斯女士在11月5日赢得普选，特朗普几乎肯定会成为总统。从遵循规则的角度来看，这将是公平的，但民主党人会感到愤怒。 furious adj. 狂怒的；暴怒的

The second outcome is a Trump win. Democrats could bring legal challenges in close states where Ms Harris lost. Some of these might end up at the Supreme Court, where three justices appointed by Mr Trump would have to adjudicate their merits. Three of the conservative justices worked on George W. Bush’s legal team back in 2000 on Bush v Gore. That would make it hard to persuade Ms Harris’s supporters that decisions favouring the Trump campaign were impartial. After the court’s rulings on abortion and presidential immunity, Democrats have come to view the justices as Republican politicians in robes. Nevertheless, most elected Democrats would probably accept the rulings, if more grudgingly than in 2000.

第二种结果是 Trump 获胜。民主党人可能会在 Ms Harris 失利的关键州提出法律挑战。其中一些可能会提交到最高法院，由三位 Trump 任命的大法官来裁定其合理性。这三位保守派大法官曾在 2000 年为 George W. Bush 的法律团队工作，参与 Bush v Gore 案。这将使得哈里斯的支持者难以相信那些有利于 Trump 竞选活动的裁决是公正的。在最高法院关于堕胎和总统豁免权的裁决之后，民主党人开始将大法官视为身穿法袍的共和党政治家。然而，大多数当选的民主党人可能会接受这些裁决，尽管态度可能比2000年时更不情愿。 adjudicate v. 判决；裁定 merit n. 优点; 功绩；价值｜ v. 值得 ruling n. 裁决｜ adj. 统治的；支配的｜ v. 统治；支配 robe n. 长袍｜ v. （使）穿上长袍
在美国政治中，“close states”通常指在选举中结果接近的州，这些州的选票差距很小，可能由任何一方（民主党或共和党）赢得。这些州也被称为“swing states”或“battleground states”（摇摆州或战场州），因为它们在选举中没有固定的党派倾向，可能会在不同的选举周期中支持不同的政党候选人。由于这些州的选举结果对总统选举的最终结果具有决定性影响，政治竞选活动通常会集中大量资源和时间在这些州，以争取未决定的选民。

However, if enough Democratic lawmakers were really convinced the courts had acted unfairly, they could try to block certification of the result in Congress, following the precedent set by Republicans in 2021. Then, 139 House members and eight senators (all Republicans) voted to reject the results. A reform of the Electoral Count Act, passed two years ago, raises the threshold, so that 20 senators and 87 members of the House would have to object. In the unlikely scenario that those preliminary votes passed, Democrats would probably lose the subsequent full votes of both chambers. All this is possible, but the most probable outcome, if Mr Trump were to win the election, is that Ms Harris would concede, taking the wind out of any Democratic challenge to the result.

然而，如果足够多的民主党议员真的相信法院行为不公，他们可能会尝试在国会中阻止结果的认证，遵循共和党人在2021年设立的先例。当时，139名众议员和8名参议员（均为共和党人）投票反对接受选举结果。两年前通过的《选举计票法》改革提高了门槛，因此需要20名参议员和87名众议员提出反对。在这种不太可能的情况下，即使这些初步投票通过，民主党可能仍会在随后的两院全体投票中失败。所有这些都是可能的，但如果特朗普赢得选举，最可能的结果是哈里斯女士会承认失败，从而削弱任何民主党对结果的挑战。 scenario n. 设想；可能发生的情况 preliminary adj. 预备的；初步的 chamber n. 房间；议院 concede v. 承认；让步

If Ms Harris wins, Mr Trump will not be so gracious. In that third scenario, the complexity of America’s voting system collides with the MAGA conspiracy machine. The Republican National Committee has pre-emptively filed more than 100 election lawsuits in the states to create a paper trail in preparation to fight the result. As a legal strategy this would probably fail again, as it did in 2020. Fortunately, the governors of key swing states are not election-deniers. Lawyers who might be tempted to bring conspiracy theories to court ought to be deterred by the example of Rudy Giuliani, a Trump bagman who was bombarded by lawsuits. If some cases do get to the Supreme Court, John Roberts and the three Trump-appointed justices may well be keen to demonstrate their independence by rejecting weak challenges. Democrats might yet come to see the Supreme Court as a guarantor of democracy.

如果 Ms Harris 获胜，Mr Trump 可能不会如此轻松。在第三种情况下，美国复杂的投票系统将与“MAGA”阴谋机器发生碰撞。共和党全国委员会已经预先在各州提起了100多起选举诉讼，以创建书面记录，为对抗结果做好准备。作为一种法律策略，这可能会再次失败，就像在2020年那样。幸运的是，关键州的州长并不是选举否认者。那些可能被诱惑将阴谋论带上法庭的律师应该受到 Rudy Giuliani 的例子所震慑，他是特朗普的亲信，曾遭到大量诉讼的轰炸。如果某些案件确实进入最高法院，John Roberts 和三位 Trump 任命的大法官可能会热衷于通过驳回无力的挑战来展示他们的独立性。民主党人或许会开始将最高法院视为民主的保障者。 gracious adj. 亲切的；和谐的；仁慈的 collide v. 碰撞；冲突 conspiracy n. 阴谋 bagman n. 流浪汉；背着背包四处找工作的人 lawsuit n. 诉讼 guarantor n. 担保人；保证人

Yet a new “stop the steal” movement could fail legally while succeeding politically. In the last election a shocking number of House Republicans voted to reject the result. Since then the party has only become more beholden to Mr Trump. Members either sincerely believe the other side wins only when it steals elections, or go along with that idea in public. Those who refuse—Liz Cheney, Mitch McConnell, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney—have been sidelined. If congressional Republicans did indeed secure a vote to overturn the election, they would probably lose. But the retailing of conspiracies could make the stolen-election myth even stronger.

然而，一个新的“阻止窃取”运动可能在法律上失败，但在政治上成功。在上次选举中，令人震惊的是有大量众议院共和党人投票反对接受结果。从那时起，该党只变得更加依赖 Mr Trump。议员们要么真诚地相信对方只有在窃取选举时才会获胜，要么在公开场合附和这种观点。那些拒绝这样做的人——如 Liz Cheney、Mitch McConnell、Mike Pence 和 Mitt Romney——已经被边缘化。如果国会中的共和党人确实获得推翻选举的投票，他们可能会失败。但阴谋论的传播可能会使“选举被窃取”的神话更加强大。 sideline n. 副业；边线｜ v. 迫使退出 beholden adj. 对 … 感激的 congressional adj. 议会的；国会的；大会的 overturn v. 推翻；颠覆｜ n. 推倒；颠覆

One possible consequence of this myth is political violence. The Capitol will be so well policed in January 2025 that there will be no repeat of the riots on January 6th. But local police, the Secret Service and the FBI will have to prepare for protesters descending on statehouses, and for the risk of assassination attempts against lawmakers. About 20% of American adults say that they are open to the possibility of using violence for a political end. In a large, well-armed country you do not need many of them to mean it for that threat to be scary.

这种神话的一个可能后果是政治暴力。2025年1月，国会大厦的警备将非常严密，不会重演1月6日的骚乱。但地方警察、特勤局和联邦调查局必须为抗议者涌向州议会大厦做好准备，并应对针对立法者的暗杀企图的风险。大约20%的美国成年人表示，他们可能会考虑使用暴力来达到政治目的。在一个大型且武装良好的国家，即使只有少数人这样想，这种威胁也足以令人恐惧。 riot n. 骚乱；暴乱 statehouse n. 仓库 “Statehouses”在中文中通常翻译为“州议会大厦”。这是指美国各州用于立法和政府行政事务的建筑。

Cheater-in-chief

The other consequence of the stolen-election myth is the continuing degradation of American democracy. To be clear, America will still see a peaceful transfer of power in January 2025. Neither side will be able to install a president who lost by the rules. But that is a minimal definition of democratic success. In the broader sense, elections are meant to generate the consent of the people to be governed, even by a president for whom they did not vote. That requires voters to believe that the process is fair and can be trusted, so that their side has a decent shot in four years. Each time people feel that an election lacks legitimacy, the day draws closer when one side or the other breaks the system rather than accept the result. ■

“选举被窃取”神话的另一个后果是美国民主的持续退化。需要明确的是，美国将在2025年1月实现权力的和平交接。任何一方都无法通过违反规则的方式让一位失败的总统上台。但这只是对民主成功的最低限度定义。从更广泛的意义上讲，选举旨在获得人民的同意，即使是他们没有投票支持的总统。这要求选民相信选举过程是公平且值得信赖的，以便他们的一方在四年后有合理的机会。每当人们感到选举缺乏合法性时，距离某一方打破制度而不是接受结果的那一天就更近了一步。■ degradation n. 降级；恶化 legitimacy n. 合法性；正统性；合理性